We are a little over halfway through the NFL season which means now is the best time ever to make a little too early Super Bowl picks. It’s not WAY too early picks, we have a good grasp on who these teams are and what they can do. But anything can happen in the second half of this season that would make any picks now completely irrelevant. Patrick Mahomes goes down? That’s a huge blow and the Chiefs are no longer favorites. Horrible injury to Todd Gurley? Does that take the Rams out of the running?

The way I see it, going into this season there are four categories of post-season teams: The Favorites, The Underdogs, The Darkhorses, and The Not-A-Chances. The Favorites are: Saints, Rams, and Chiefs. The Underdogs are: Patriots, Steelers, and Vikings. The Darkhorses (alternate name: Longshots) are: Bears, Panthers, Texans, and Chargers. The Not-A-Chances are everyone else, including those who have a shot to make the playoffs, like: Redskins, Eagles, Bengals, Titans, Jaguars, Seahawks and Packers.

 

My Pick to Win

New Orleans Saints

The Saints are currently the number two seed in the NFC, behind the Rams, and will likely face Los Angeles in the NFC championship game, though there could be a darkhorse contender in there. I’ll talk about them in a second.

I think this is the most well-balanced team in the NFL. They have, arguably, the most high powered offense, maybe only behind Kansas City and the Rams, but they have the benefit of having a true veteran QB behind center. Drew Brees is the ugly stepchild of NFL quarterbacks. No one ever talks about him, but he’s out here quietly breaking records and redefining this game. No one would take a chance on him when he started, he was too short, but he has proven himself to be in the discussion of some of the best of all time. By being excellent, he opened the way for other shorter quarterbacks to have a chance in the NFL. He’s been overshadowed by Brady, Peyton, and, to some extent, Big Ben all of his career. This season has been a signature season for him and I think he leads the Saints to another Super Bowl to cap it off.

Their defense, though improved from the start of last season, is still troubling. They are allowing 376 yards per game, 23rd in the NFL and worse than the Rams, Vikings, and Steelers, but better than the Patriots and Chiefs. They are allowing 25 points per game, tied with Carolina for 23rd in the NFL and worse than all other Super Bowl contenders, including Chiefs, Patriots, Vikings, Rams, and Steelers.

But they are first in the NFL in points per game with 36.7. They are sixth in total yards, fifth in yards/game, and third in total points. They have TWO all-star running backs and an elite, veteran quarterback. Mahomes and Jared Goff are fantastic, but they may not have the playoff poise to perform down the stretch (think Alex Smith). Tom Brady and Big Ben are the only other quarterbacks that have the ability to lift their teams to a win that will be on threatening teams this postseason. I wouldn’t count that out.

The Safe Pick

Los Angeles Rams

 

If you don’t want to accept my somewhat risky, non-risky Saints pick and want to bet the safest option, the Rams are the go-to. This is Todd Gurley’s league and everyone else is just pretending.

The Rams’ offense is absurdly good and they can beat you in the air or on the ground. Todd Gurley is the probable MVP and easily the current best running back in the league (thanks Laveon Bell). He will score, he will rack up yards, your only shot is to keep him under 125 yards per game. Jared Goff is a great Quarterback with some dangerous weapons. Though they did just lose Cooper Kupp for the season, which is a huge blow, Brandin Cooks and Robert Woods are incredible talents. The Rams are first in total yards, second in yards per game (behind the Bucs, so 1st for any team that matters), fifth in pass yards per game, third in total pass yards, first in rush yards and second in rush yards per game, second in total points and third in points per game. This offense is leading the charge in all areas.

Their defense ranks 12th in points per game, which is better than all of the other contenders besides the Vikings (and my darkhorse candidate). They are 20th in yards per game. Their defense isn’t spectacular, but they are, at least, mediocre, making them better than most contenders.

Sean McVay is an excellent coach and this team is crazy talented, but I think their youth hurts them. Goff and Gurley are 24 with minimal starting experience. Brandin Cooks is 25 and Robert Woods is 26. None of them have extensive playoff experience or proven playoff winning abilities. That has to hurt them. If they keep the core of this team and keep it healthy, I have no doubt they’ll win next year, but I don’t think they’ll win it this year.

My Pick for AFC Conference Winners

Kansas City Chiefs

I hesitate to say it, but the Chiefs are the easy pick to win the AFC. It is really hard to root against the Patriots in the playoffs, but they have been pretty terrible on the road this season. Currently, the Chiefs have the 1 seed, which means the AFC has to go through Kansas City and not Foxborough for the first time in living memory. I think the Patriots play the Chiefs in the AFC Championship game and lose.

Patrick Mahomes is doing truly insane things this season. The Chiefs have 3,150 total pass yards, second in the NFL. Mahomes has 231 completions on 345 attempts, 31 touchdowns with only 7 interceptions and an average 9.1 yards per pass attempt. Those are ridiculous numbers. The kid is good, but he is inexperienced. He may struggle in the playoff atmosphere, going up against greats like Big Ben, Brady, and Brees.

They are also the highest scoring team with 353 total points and second in points per game. Kareem Hunt is a great running back, but he’s not the same caliber as Gurley, Ingram, or Kamara. That’s reflected in them being seventh in total rush yards and 13th in rush yards per game. If they play a team with decent pass rushers, they could be forced to run and that might hurt them.

Their defense is a bit of a wreck, though. They are currently 29th in yards per game and 16th in points per game. Their defense (and I’m still not convinced Andy Ried is a good playoff coach) could be their downfall.

The Safest Underdog Pick

New England Patriots

It sounds strange, but the Patriots are underdogs this season and I don’t think anyone would deny that. If we follow what I laid down at the start of this article, the Patriots are clearly Underdogs. They are the 3 seed and have lost 3 away games. If they don’t improve their seed, they could play away in the playoffs and that would be tough for them.

It is still hard to call them underdogs since it is Bellicheck and Brady. They are two of the greatest to ever do it and they know how to win. It’s hard to think they won’t make the Super Bowl again, and they very well could. They have some talent on their team. It’s not as great as the talent on other teams, but it’s still lethal. I don’t think it would be surprising if they make it to the Super Bowl, but I don’t think they could beat whoever emerges out of the NFC, unless there is a surprise team.

Which leads me to my darkhorse or longshot pick to win it:

My Darkhorse Pick

Chicago Bears

I know what you’re thinking, The Bears? Really? No one is talking about them winning it. I agree, no one is, because we have some really great teams in contention for it. But the Bears are sneaky good. They are a great team that is improving throughout the course of this season. If they can continue to get hot and reach their peak right at the start of the playoffs, they could make a run. Is it likely they’ll win it? No. But if I had very little money and needed to make a lot of money by betting on one team to win the Super Bowl, they would be my pick right now.

The Bears defense is incredible, which is something none of the top contenders can say. They rank 4th in points allowed per game and yards per game, Khalil Mack is a monster pass rusher, the other top teams are known for their pass game. That is a dangerous combination. Kyle Fuller has the second most interceptions so far this season. This defense is something to fear for teams that are primarily offense like all of the major contenders are.

Their offense is also nothing to ignore. They are 18th in total yards, 16th in yards per game, and fifth in points per game. Matt Nagy has had an impressive impact on the Bear’s offense this season. He is all about aggressive passing, which is what the best teams in the NFL are doing. The Bears already have 4 receivers with over 400 yards; in 2017 only one receiver had more than 400 yards all season. They already have more points this season then they did all of last season. Mitchell Trubisky has a completion percentage of 65.5%, 19 touchdowns with 7 interceptions, and is averaging 256 yards per game. He also has 41 rushes for 320 yards and 3 touchdowns, making him one of the leagues best running quarterbacks.

But no one talks about that. No one talks about the Bears. They are 6-3 and leading a strong NFC North that contains a Super Bowl contender, the Vikings, and a Packers team with Aaron Rodgers. Their three losses were very close games: 1 point loss to the Packers in week one, an overtime loss to the Dolphins, and losing by one touchdown to the Patriots. The Bears have continually gotten better as the season goes on, but they have yet to beat any great teams. This week against the Vikings will be a huge test.

The Bears are my Darkhorse pick to win it.

Honorable Mentions

Los Angeles Chargers: at 7-2, the Chargers are second in the AFC West behind the Chiefs. Their only two losses were to the Rams and KC, the two best teams in the league. But they also haven’t played anyone on par with those teams either. If you can’t take their losses that hard since those teams are great, you can’t take most of their wins either since those are sub-par teams. They beat the Raiders twice, the 49ers and the Bills. That leaves 3 wins that are decent: the Titans, the Seahawks, and the Browns. None of those wins are impressive. They are a decent team, but I have not seen enough out of them to give them my Darkhorse pick.

Pittsburgh Steelers: Pittsburgh is good, despite all of the drama surrounding them. Again, I just haven’t seen enough to give them much recognition. Their conference is weak, as it normally is, and Big Ben is old.

Houston Texans: It will be interesting to see how the Texans play the rest of the season. They seem to be figuring stuff out, but I’m still not sure they even make it to the playoffs. They have big games against some wildcard teams coming up. The Redskins, the Titans, the Colts, the Eagles and the Browns could all beat the Texans. Will they? Who knows. But they could. That’s too much of a question mark to put the Texans in the race for me.

 

Hate em or love em, those are my picks. Let me know who you think will win.